Towards a simulation model of the Bavarian electrical energy system

This paper describes a first version of a simulation model of the electrical energy system for the German federal state Bavaria in order to analyse its energy balance during the nuclear phaseout and the increase of renewable energy sources as well as energy storage capacities. According to current plans, in ten years 50 percent of the Bavarian electric power consumption should be covered by renewable energy sources like water, wind, photovoltaics, biomass (including biogas) and geothermal energy. In addition, the number of gas power plants and pumped-storage hydroelectric plants should be enlarged while the demand for energy should be kept on a constant level. We present a hybrid simulation model using the system dynamics paradigm for modeling energy flows and using discrete-event simulation for the change of conditions (e.g., load and generation) as well as control decisions. The generation system is guided by the electric power demand and is divided into the non-fluctuating conventional power plants like nuclear, gas, oil, coal, biomass and geothermal energy power plants and volatile power plants like wind and photovoltaic parks. We present first results for two relevant scenarios. According to its modular architecture, the simulation model can be extended in order to include more relevant system aspects.